2027: Why Public Goodwill May Not Be Enough : A Note of Caution to Kwara Opposition Parties

By Jamiu Abdullahi

Politics is changing, and so are the people. These days, relying on public anger or goodwill alone to win elections is a risky plan. People are unpredictable, and many vote based on interest, not emotion. So, any opposition party in Kwara hoping that voters will punish the current government at the polls in 2027 may be disappointed.

Right now, Kwara opposition parties seem to be waiting for another Otoge moment. Sadly, that may never happen again. The Otoge movement in 2019 worked because several special things came together at once. The biggest reason was that Dr. Bukola Saraki left the APC.

Many don’t know that the so-called APC “parallel congress” at that time was not accepted by the national leadership of the party. It only became recognized after Saraki left for the PDP. That opened the door for new congresses that included the new members. So, without Saraki’s exit, Otoge would not have succeeded because he would have leveraged on Federal might to retain power.

This is not to take away credit from those who fought for Otoge, but to remind us that good politicians learn from history instead of repeating old mistakes.

Governor AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq may not have led Otoge, but he learned from the past. Beyond money and power, one thing he has going for him is smartness. He may appear quiet, but he is clever. The opposition’s lack of unity will likely be his biggest advantage. Anyone who underrates him will regret it.

The 2027 election will not be easy for the opposition. Counting on public anger or dissatisfaction alone is a weak plan. Yes, many Kwarans are unhappy with the current government, but that doesn’t mean they will automatically vote against it. People need to see that the alternatives are better, stronger, and more reliable.

While the APC has the power of government and plenty of money, opposition parties like the PDP and ADC are struggling with limited funds and internal divisions. If the election were based on financial strength, the opposition wouldn’t stand a chance. But if they unite and work together, they can achieve what money cannot buy.

The success of Otoge in 2019 came from teamwork. Different groups joined forces for a common goal. That same spirit is needed again, but unfortunately, the opposition seems more interested in fighting among themselves.

Recently, some Kwara ADC members were heard saying, “PDP is dead and will be buried by 2027.” That kind of talk is childish. How many of them can even boast of full support in their own wards, not to talk of the whole state?

For the PDP, the influence of Dr. Bukola Saraki is still strong. But his strength alone is not enough. What can make the difference is his ability to bring everyone together (the opposition and even unhappy members of the ruling APC) to form a single, united front before 2027.

The opposition must avoid picking candidates based on emotions or favouritism. The 2026 primaries should be fair and open to all. Imposing candidates or using money to buy delegates will only cause division and distrust.

Every part of Kwara, especially Kwara North, must be carried along. Everyone should have a fair chance to contest, and the best candidate should win. When the process is fair, those who lose will still support the winner, knowing it was a level playing field. That is how to build trust and attract more supporters.

Kwara politics has changed. Public goodwill alone won’t remove an incumbent who understands power and has state resources. Only unity, fairness, and smart planning can give the opposition a real chance in 2027.

Kwarans are watching closely, and history will not forgive anyone who plays the spoiler. The big question is, will the opposition learn from the past or make the same mistakes again?