Opposition Coalition: Can They Unseat Tinubu in 2027?
By Femi Ogundele
In a democracy, opposition parties are meant to serve as watchdogs, holding the ruling government accountable while presenting alternative policies for national development. But in Nigeria, opposition politics often feels more like a chaotic soap opera than a serious attempt at governance. Instead of challenging the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) with well-structured policies and a united front, opposition parties are more focused on internal power struggles, factional battles, and ego-driven conflicts.
The latest example is the controversy within the Social Democratic Party (SDP) over former Kaduna State Governor Nasir El-Rufai’s alleged membership. Reports surfaced claiming he had joined the party, but within hours, SDP officials rushed to deny it, insisting that El-Rufai had no ties to them. This kind of internal confusion is a symptom of a much deeper problem—opposition parties in Nigeria cannot seem to agree on their own identity, let alone build a strong platform to challenge the ruling party. But the SDP’s struggles are only a fraction of the larger problem.
Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), the main opposition party, is currently in turmoil. In October 2024, a melo drama happened in National Working Committee (NWC) leading to suspensions and counter-suspensions among its members. The National Publicity Secretary, Debo Ologunagba, and the National Legal Adviser, Kamaldeen Ajibade, were suspended over allegations of disloyalty. In retaliation, another faction suspended Acting National Chairman Umar Damagum and National Secretary Samuel Anyanwu. The party, which should be strategizing for the 2027 elections, is instead consumed by internal wrangling.
Adding to the PDP’s woes is the Rivers State crisis, where a bitter feud between former Governor Nyesom Wike and his successor Sim Fubara has split the party in the state. What should have been a seamless transition of power turned into a prolonged political battle that has weakened the PDP’s grip in one of its traditional strongholds.
The Labour Party (LP), which gained significant momentum during the 2023 elections, has been unable to consolidate its success due to leadership disputes and internal divisions. Instead of building on its electoral gains, the party has been bogged down by court battles over the National Chairman position, with Julius Abure’s leadership being challenged by opposing factions. The result? A once-promising opposition force is now struggling to remain relevant.
Moreover, Peter Obi, the party’s 2023 presidential candidate, has appeared distant from the party’s internal wranglings, raising concerns about whether Labour can remain a unified force in the next election cycle.
The story is similar in NNPP, another opposition party as the party is experiencing internal divisions. Reports indicate that key figures within the party, such as former Kano State Governor Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, have distanced themselves from potential alliances with other opposition parties like PDP and LP. This lack of coordination has made it nearly impossible for opposition parties to work together against the APC.
The APC’s Advantage: A Weakened Opposition
This endless cycle of infighting does not just weaken these parties, it strengthens the ruling APC. While the opposition is busy fighting itself, the APC continues to consolidate power with little resistance. Even when the government makes unpopular decisions like fuel subsidy removal and currency devaluation, the opposition is too distracted by its internal problems to capitalize on public dissatisfaction. The ruling party does not need to crush the opposition when the opposition is already doing the job itself.
These internal conflicts within opposition parties have significant implications for Nigeria’s democratic health. A fragmented and weakened opposition fails to provide the necessary checks and balances on the ruling party, leading to a lack of accountability and diminished democratic processes. Moreover, the inability of opposition parties to unite and present a credible alternative to the APC risks entrenching a one-party dominant system, which could stifle political competition and innovation.
For Nigeria’s opposition parties to regain relevance and effectively challenge the ruling party, they must prioritize internal unity, discipline, and democratic practices. Addressing leadership disputes transparently, fostering inclusive decision-making processes, and building alliances based on shared goals are essential steps toward revitalizing the opposition.
Without such reforms, opposition parties risk continued marginalization and the erosion of democratic vitality in Nigeria. If they cannot unite and offer a serious alternative, they should not be surprised when Nigerians choose to stick with the status quo. Ultimately, the biggest threat to Nigeria’s opposition is not the APC, it is the opposition itself.